full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: A prediction for the future of Iran

Unscramble the Blue Letters

So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it, and I'm going to give you some exleamps out of Iran, and you're going to be wondering, "Why should we listen to this guy? Why should we believe what he's saying?" So I'm going to show you a factoid. This is an assnmesest by the Central Intelligence anecgy of the percentage of time that the model I'm talking about is right in predicting things whose ouotcme is not yet known, when the experts who provided the data iuntps got it wrong. That's not my cilam, that's a CIA claim — you can read it, it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.

Open Cloze

So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it, and I'm going to give you some ________ out of Iran, and you're going to be wondering, "Why should we listen to this guy? Why should we believe what he's saying?" So I'm going to show you a factoid. This is an __________ by the Central Intelligence ______ of the percentage of time that the model I'm talking about is right in predicting things whose _______ is not yet known, when the experts who provided the data ______ got it wrong. That's not my _____, that's a CIA claim — you can read it, it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.

Solution

  1. agency
  2. inputs
  3. assessment
  4. claim
  5. examples
  6. outcome

Original Text

So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it, and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran, and you're going to be wondering, "Why should we listen to this guy? Why should we believe what he's saying?" So I'm going to show you a factoid. This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency of the percentage of time that the model I'm talking about is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known, when the experts who provided the data inputs got it wrong. That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim — you can read it, it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
game theory 3
united states 3
national security 2
pay attention 2
good reason 2
civilian nuclear 2
yellow line 2
dominant theme 2

Important Words

  1. agency
  2. assessment
  3. bradford
  4. central
  5. cia
  6. claim
  7. data
  8. declassified
  9. edited
  10. examples
  11. experts
  12. factoid
  13. give
  14. guy
  15. inputs
  16. intelligence
  17. iran
  18. listen
  19. model
  20. outcome
  21. percentage
  22. predicting
  23. press
  24. process
  25. read
  26. show
  27. talk
  28. talking
  29. time
  30. university
  31. volume
  32. westerfield
  33. wondering
  34. wrong
  35. yale